expansion to include eight central and
eastern European countries plus Cyprus
and Malta.) The saturation rates (i.e.,
shares of total building area having cooling devices) were 27 percent in the service
sector and 5 percent in the residential
sector. The current market share of district cooling is almost 2 percent, corresponding to deliveries of about 9
PJ/year. About 100 district cooling systems exist in high-density European city
centers and commercial areas. Most of
these are located in France, Sweden,
Germany and Italy.
Space cooling demands are increasing
rapidly now in most European countries,
due to higher availability and an increasing
ability and willingness to pay for cooling.
The space cooling demand for 2020 was
forecasted to be about 2 EJ, with a saturation rate of 60 percent in the service
sector and 40 percent in the residential
sector. A district cooling market share
of 25 percent would translate to district
cooling deliveries of 0.6 EJ/year.
Implications
After assessing EU district heating
and cooling markets and their growth
potential, the Ecoheatcool study quantified the implications of boosting district
energy sales in the 32 target countries.
Doubling European district heating
sales, by increasing the district heating
share from 6 percent to 12 percent in all
end use of net heat and electricity improv-
ing current heat generation, would produce
the following total benefits:
Higher energy efficiency: Reduction
of primary energy supply by about 2
EJ/year, equal to the current primary
energy supply of Sweden.
Higher security of supply: Reduction
of the import dependence by nearly 5
EJ/year, equal to the current primary
energy supply of Poland.
Lower CO2 emissions: Reduction of 400
million tons/year, corresponding to 9
percent of the target area’s current
emissions. This estimated reduction
is equal to the current emissions of
France from fuel combustion.
If the European district cooling systems could increase their current market
share from 2 percent in 2000 to 25 percent in 2020 for all end use of space and
process cooling, the following benefits
could be realized:
Higher energy efficiency: Reduction of
primary energy supply with 0.5-0.6
EJ/year, equal to the current primary
energy supply of Latvia and Lithuania.
Lower electricity demand: Reduction of
0.2 EJ/year, equal to the current electricity supply in Portugal. This reduction
will reduce future summer congestion
in electricity distribution, since the reduction appears during summer peak hours.
Lower CO2 emissions: Reduction of 40
million to 60 million tons/year, corresponding to about 1 percent of the target
area emissions, equal to the current
emissions of Sweden from fuel combustion.
These benefits were estimated from
a comparison with the baseline of no
growth of existing district cooling systems.
Also, the cooling was also assumed to be
generated via such strategic resources as
CHP, waste incineration, industrial surplus
heat, geothermal heat and fuels such as
biomass – not completely by electrically
driven compression machines.
Recommendations
The Ecoheatcool study concluded by
setting forth 10 strategy recommendations for policymakers concerning the
European heating and cooling markets:
1. End-use demands: Heating and cooling markets need more attention and to
be systematically addressed by European
legislation.
2. Urban areas: Heating and cooling
policies should prioritize action in
urban areas.
3. Local conditions: Siting production
facilities and infrastructure planning/
support must be based on cost/benefit
analysis of the various supply options.
4. Statistics: EU and national governments
need to ensure better monitoring of local
heating and cooling markets to enable
proper analysis and policymaking.
5. Resource efficiency: Impact of all
legislative measures and energy investments must be evaluated from a primary
resource perspective.
